It's easy to say investors should focus on fundamentals but this risk can have a significant and lasting impact
India's current account deficit is expected to deteriorate in the current fiscal on account of costlier imports and tepid merchandise exports, according to the Finance Ministry's monthly economic review. The review released on Thursday by the ministry also said that global headwinds would continue to pose a downside risk to growth as crude oil and edibles, which have driven inflation in India, remain major imported components in the consumption basket. For the present, it said, "their global prices have softened, as fears of recession have dampened prices somewhat. This would weaken inflationary pressures in India and rein in inflation."
RBI will now increasingly shift focus to domestic parameters
In a year when the country produced record coal, rains hit movement of the fuel from mines to power generation units, impacting power generation in many states, including Gujarat, Punjab, Rajasthan, Delhi and Tamil Nadu.
'Such big falls are quite frequent these days, so do not try to time this market.' 'Use big dips to accumulate quality stocks.'
Foreign Secretary Vinay Kwatra on Wednesday refused to speculate on whether the G20 foreign ministers' meeting would be able to come out with a joint communique against the backdrop of widening differences between the West and Russia on the Ukraine conflict.
'We have relatively strong growth and a healthy corporate earnings cycle as positives, but a worrisome current account deficit and high inflation as challenges.'
The ongoing oil price decline is mainly a result of oversupply in the global market
On the volume side, the number of M&A and PE deals was 110 in July, 15 per cent lower from 130 in July 2018.
Nirmala Sitharaman's messaging was clear when she presented a well-balanced Budget with an eye on state elections in nine states followed by a general election next year, observes Ramesh Menon.
Inflation trajectory, domestically as also globally, is what will shape the economy, and therefore the market, over the next couple of quarters.'
Large and small businesses alike have delivered low-key performances.
After consumer price index jumped the 6.3-per cent mark in May and wholesale inflation set a record of 12.94 per cent, house economists at Swiss brokerage UBS Securities have warned that the country is facing more upside risks on the inflation front that is set to averaging at 5 per cent for the year. Rising prices of edible oils and protein rich items pushed retail inflation to a six-month high of 6.3 per cent in May, breaching the comfort level of the Reserve Bank and thus rendering reduction in interest rates a difficult proposition in the near term. Led by petrol price, that has crossed the Rs 100-mark in many states, wholesale inflation too accelerated to a record 12.94 per cent in May. While crude oil has crossed $70 a barrel on account of rising prices of crude oil and manufactured goods due to spike in commodities, and the low base of last year due to the lockdown.
When the world was upended by the Covid-19 pandemic, metals got its shine back. In the last two years, infrastructure spending by major economies spurred demand, energy transition and intermittent supply disruptions fuelled a scorching rally in metals after a downturn during the first Covid wave. Now, Russia's war on Ukraine is ensuring that elevated prices stay the course.
India's GDP is estimated to grow at 7.4 per cent in the financial year 2022-23 with rising prices triggered by the Russia-Ukraine conflict posing as the biggest challenge to the global economic recovery, Ficci's Economic Outlook Survey released on Sunday said. According to the survey, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) is likely to start a rate hike cycle in the second half of 2022, while a repo rate hike of 50-75 bps is expected by the end of the current fiscal. The RBI is expected to continue supporting the ongoing economic recovery by keeping the repo rate unchanged in its April policy review, the survey said.
Link between oil exploration and markets can be used by India to great advantage.
'For the next two years, we expect the bulk of earnings growth contribution from sectors like financials and energy, where the outlook remains positive, while the sectors which are linked to domestic consumption and are currently witnessing strains on margins have low salience for Nifty earnings.'
The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) on Wednesday announced to increase the policy repo rate by 50 basis points to 4.9 per cent, the second hike in five weeks aimed at quelling the inflation. The MPC vote was unanimous and has decided to keep stance withdrawal from accommodative, RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das said in a press conference on Wednesday. The decision was taken during a three-day meeting of the RBI's Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) to review the interest rates in the country. The MPC voted unanimously to increase the policy repo rate by 50 bps to 4.90 per cent," Das said.
India and the US had on July 17 signed a preliminary agreement for cooperating on emergency crude oil reserves, including the possibility of India storing oil in the US emergency stockpile.
On February 24, when Vladimir Putin announced a military operation on Ukraine, few would have thought that Indian government-owned GAIL India would feel the impact. The tensions over gas supplies were essentially a Europe-Russia problem, related to the sanctions western economies imposed on Moscow. But the EU depends on Russian imports for 40 per cent of its gas stocks, an over-dependence that Russia has underlined with Kremlin-owned Gazprom cutting its supplies through the Nord Stream 1 pipeline to 20 per cent, citing maintenance issues.
Jaishankar said all members would agree that India's approach should be guided by its national beliefs and values, national interest and by its national strategy.
This means lower losses on fuel sales by Indian oil companies and a shrinking oil subsidy bill for the government.
The world economy is going through a tough phase.
Experts caution against tough times in Indian equity markets in 2015.
So which sectors are likely to do well in 2022? Should you focus on domestic economy-related sectors or export-oriented ones?
Russia dominated Saudi Arabia in oil supplies as the world's fastest-growing major economy for fossil fuels in October, relegating the Kingdom to third place. Iraq was India's top oil supplier, according to the data from Vortexa. Saudi Arabia's decline in India's oil market has coincided with Russia's rise, and ironically occurred amid growing diplomatic ties between Riyadh and New Delhi. Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman Al Saud is visiting India this month to meet Prime Minister Narendra Modi.
'Periods of high volatility are usually bad for mid-caps and this is something that has to be kept in mind.' 'Focus on quality is of paramount importance.'
'The government must keep bad news out of the newspapers. If you have news about a fight everyday, it is not a climate where investment takes place.'
The government should bring natural gas under the Goods and Services Tax (GST) regime to realise Prime Minister Narendra Modi's vision for a gas-based economy and raising the share of the environment-friendly fuel in India's energy basket, an industry body that represents the likes of Reliance Industries as well as state-owned firms, has said. Natural gas is currently outside the ambit of GST, and existing legacy taxes -- central excise duty, state VAT, central sales tax -- continue to be applicable on the fuel. In its pre-Budget memorandum to the finance ministry, Federation of Indian Petroleum Industry (FIPI), which boasts of members from across the oil and gas spectrum, also demanded rationalisation of GST on transportation of natural gas through pipeline as well as on re-gasification of imported LNG to help bring down cost of the environment friendly fuel.
'We would like to develop Andhra Pradesh into a logistics hub not only for India, but also for South Asia.'
What are the most worrisome aspects of climate change for India? Can they be solved?
'India easily remains one among the more attractive large economies, with high growth and stable/improving macros, as a top investment destination.' 'We are looking pretty good.'
Reliance Industries on Friday reported a 41.5 per cent jump in its third quarter net profit as oil, retail and telecom businesses fired on all cylinders. Net profit of Rs 18,549 crore in October-December compared with Rs 13,101 crore a year back, the company said in a stock exchange filing. Income from operations rose to Rs 1.91 lakh crore from Rs 1.28 lakh crore.
The world economy will consume in the next five years far less oil than previously assumed, the western countries' energy watchdog said on Friday in a further sign of the impact of the global economic crisis on commodities markets.
Amid slowing growth and low interest rates, investors will need to focus on stock-picking, suggests John Remmert.
We have our own problems for sure and they are not trivial, but for now, our economy is in not too bad a shape, our politics is as personality-driven and authoritarian as that of most countries in the world. We must make the best of what we have and not be excessively unhappy looking at the grass on the other side of the septic tank which may not be greener after all!, observes Shreekant Sambrani.
Wood Mackenzie projected India's real GDP level to overtake Japan and reach over $6 trillion by 2035.
India's economy grew at 7.6 per cent in 2015-16.
Shaktikanta Das said in Washington, DC, that there was nothing sacrosanct about the 25 bps rate cut and that monetary policy could be well served by calibrating the size of the policy rate to the dynamics of the situation, and the size of the change itself could convey the stance of policy.
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